Sales Forecasting Expert

Project Objective: (please do not apply if you do not have any experience in Finance, Data analitycs. AI users won’t ve hired) I'm looking for an experienced freelance financial / retail forecasting specialist with excellent Excel skills to develop a fully automated Sales Forecasting & Target Setting Model. The objective is to create a reliable tool that can: - Predict the expected sales landing based on actual performance. - Recommend whether the current sales target should be revised upward or downward and why - Build different business scenarios to support decision-making - Automatically update forecasts as new weekly sales results are added. - Provide forecasting at both total business and detailed product level. Required Expertise The freelancer should have strong experience in: - Financial forecasting and modelling. - Retail sales planning and target setting. - Sales trend and performance analysis. - Predictive modelling. - Scenario planning. - Advanced Excel modelling and automation. - Large datasets with multiple dimensions. - Value and quantity analysis. - Seasonality and historical trend analysis. Experience in retail, FMCG or another product-driven business would be highly preferred. Data Available Historical and current sales data will be provided including: * Sales Value. * Sales Quantity. * Weekly performance. * Monthly performance. * Fiscal Year performance. * Previous-year comparison. * by Segment. * by Product Line. The model should be designed so additional historical variables can be incorporated where relevant to improve forecasting accuracy. Required Sales Forecast The model must calculate an expected sales landing for each period based on actual performance to date. Forecasts will be required at: - Total Business level. - By Segment. - Total of all Segments. - By Product Line. - Total of all Product Lines. - Sales Value. - Sales Quantity. The model must allow the user to move easily from the total business view into the Segment and Product Line details. Scenario Planning The model should calculate four scenarios: - Pessimistic: downside scenario based on weaker expected performance. - Realistic Landing: statistically most probable expected result based on current performance and historical behaviour. - Stretch Target: achievable target above the realistic landing requiring additional business acceleration. - Optimistic: upper potential scenario based on favourable performance assumptions. The scenarios should not simply apply arbitrary percentage increases or decreases to the same forecast. Each scenario must have a clear methodology and business rationale Landing & Target Recommendation A critical part of the project is the development of an equation/model able to estimate the expected landing during the month or fiscal period. The calculation should consider, where statistically relevant: * Actual sales achieved to date. * Remaining selling days / weeks. * Historical weekly sales distribution. * Historical monthly performance. * Same period previous year. * Current growth / decline trend. * Recent sales velocity. * Value and quantity trends. * Segment performance. * Product Line performance. * Seasonality. * Historical acceleration or slowdown during different stages of the month. * Current target achievement. * Other statistically relevant variables identified by the expert. The model should then identify: Current Target → Expected Landing → Gap / Upside → Recommended Revised Target It should clearly indicate when the existing target appears: * Too low. * Realistic. * At risk. * Too aggressive. Forecasting Methodology This is one of the most important requirements of the project. I'm not looking for a generic run-rate calculation, such as: Sales achieved ÷ days elapsed × total days I'm also not looking for an automatically generated formula without a strong financial or statistical rationale. The freelancer is expected to design and recommend the appropriate forecasting methodology based on the available data. The methodology may combine several forecasting approaches if this improves accuracy. The expert must provide a detailed explanation covering: - The forecasting equation. - Why this methodology was selected. - Variables included in the calculation. - Weight given to each variable. - How the weights were determined. - Treatment of seasonality. - Treatment of abnormal sales periods or outliers. - How weekly performance impacts the forecast. - How Value and Quantity interact within the forecast. - How each scenario is calculated. - How the Stretch Target is calculated. - How and when the target should be revised upward or downward. - Limitations of the forecasting methodology. Accuracy & Back-Testing The model must be tested against historical sales data before final validation. The freelancer should calculate the forecast error and demonstrate how accurate the methodology would historically have been. The final methodology should be selected based on measured forecasting accuracy, not only theoretical assumptions. Excel Tool Requirements The final Excel file should be: - Fully automated. - Easy to update. - Easy to understand. - Structured for recurring monthly use. - Able to integrate new weekly results without rebuilding calculations. - Able to automatically refresh forecasts and scenarios. - Able to automatically calculate target gaps and recommended target revisions. - Equipped with clear input, calculation and output sections. - Protected against accidental formula changes where relevant. - Designed so the methodology can be audited and understood. No manual calculation should be required for the regular forecasting process once the model is finalized. Expected Deliverables The final delivery must include: - Fully functional automated Excel forecasting model. - Sales landing forecast. - Four scenario calculations. - Target revision recommendation. - Segment-level forecast. - Product Line-level forecast. - Total business forecast. - Value and Quantity for